SAG Awards TV Predictions (Part 3)
Hun i voted on this one because i don’t think anyone will top Qualley for me on the rest of the year (well, never doubt Olivia Colman) But this won’t work in other categories because I have yet to see many performances from shows that haven’t even aired yet, so i really can’t vote on others. The likes of Insecure, Curb, Shrink Next Door, Succession, Severance, etc. haven’t even aired yet. Likewise, The Morning Show, Dopesick, Shadows, Only Murders are still airing.
Ok,got it. I’ll make only Limited Categories Polls for now (including Limited Ensemble). I’ll make the Drama and Comedy Polls in late November/December when most shows have aired.
I really think Kate Winslet and Jason Sudeikis are not locks. I can see (1) Kate Winslet losing to Jessica Chastain or Jennifer Coolidge or Julianne Nicholson or Margaret Qualley. (2) Jason Sudeikis losing to Martin Short or Steve Martin or Nicholas Hoult. Does anyone share my opinion?
I have to agree with what’s already been said: I believe Sudeikis is a capital L lock while Winslet is a safe bet.
First off, Sudeikis won last year, which means his chances of winning again this year are automatically high given how much SAG-AFTRA favors repeat winners. Then add the fact that he just won the Emmy and that Ted Lasso is undeniably huge. Personally, I am not even sure both Short and Martin get in, and I remain that The Great has enough passionate support to get shortlisted by a nominating committee comprised of one to two thousand members but not enough widespread appeal to win an award voted on by 150k SAG-AFTRA members.
As for Winslet, no, she is not completely locked. Since The White Lotus is presumably going drama after it was announced that Coolidge will be reprising her character in S2, I think Winslet’s biggest challenger will be Qualley, who has the raves and Netflix behind her. At the end of the day, however, if Winslet was able to win the Emmy in arguably the most competitive category of the year, I don’t see her losing the SAG Award, which I thought she could have won even if she’d lost the Emmy. Mare of Easttown was both widely seen and liked, and Winslet is a beloved vet, both of which are important when considering just how many people vote for this award. Your local weatherman will have most likely seen MOE and for sure knows who Winslet is — that’s how I tend to predict these awards. As amazing as she was, Nicholson is not locked for the nom, likely does not stand a chance of winning in a combined field and will, IMO, if nominated not even siphon enough votes from Winslet to stop the latter from winning. Meanwhile, Chastain, despite giving an uber-acclaimed performance, will likely suffer from Scenes From a Marriage being somewhat underseen. And if she gets nominated for Tammy Faye on the movie side, she also risks splitting her own vote across categories if voters don’t want to check her off twice.
Sudeikis is almost definitely locked because SAG really does go for vote splitting in a big way and so neither Short nor Martin will be able to overcome him. Even if one were snubbed, eliminating the splitting element, that would demonstrate that the show had less passion than we thought and so again indicate a Sudekis victory.
Winslet is not locked. But she is still a very sturdy frontrunner given that none of her new opponents have really emerged as huge threats for the win, more the nomination. Her path to losing is probably if both Nicolson and Smart get nominated against her, and the other two are Qualley and someone who is definitely not winning. In this scenario I could see Qualley being able to squeak a victory given recency bias. Even here though, I would still probably predict Winslet as I doubt that many who have watched and loved Mare would vote away from her for one of her co-stars.
Your local weatherman will have most likely seen MOE and for sure knows who Winslet is — that’s how I tend to predict these awards.
I fell off laughing.
And if she gets nominated for Tammy Faye on the movie side, she also risks splitting her own vote across categories if voters don’t want to check her off twice.
Something like this happened to Julianne Moore in 2002 at every award ceremony where she was nominated for The Hours (supporting) and Far From Heaven (Lead).
I’ll be creating polls for each category at SAG TV to see the results.
Limited/Anthology Series Actress
When will the results be declared?
Both Winslet and Sudeikis are easily the closest thing we have to a lock right now, but if I had to pick a safer one as of now I’d go with Winslet, because on top of having an extremely popular and acclaimed show backing her up, none of her current rivals would make much sense or have a strong enough narrative – for as good as both her show and her performance in it are, I don’t see anybody rushing to get Qualley a win, for instance.
On the other hand, while Sudeikis leads a show just as popular and acclaimed, he’d at least be going against two beloved industry veterans who I could see the older demographic especially back up in Martin and Short. We also have evidence of comedic shows starring iconic actors and targeted to an older crowd overperforming frequently here with Grace and Frankie and The Kominsky Method – albeit both on Netflix which definitely plays a factor – so there could be a pattern there as well.
Regardless, it goes without saying that betting against either of them at this point would be foolish.
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