PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
*BEST PICTURE*
Frontrunners
Nomadland (Searchlight)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Promising Young Woman (Focus)
Mank (Netflix)
The Father (Sony Classics)
Sound of Metal (Amazon)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
Major Threats
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
News of the World (Universal)
Soul (Pixar)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Possibilities
Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
The Mauritanian (STX)
Long Shots
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)
Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn)
First Cow (A24)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Frontrunners
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
David Fincher (Mank)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Major Threats
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)
Regina King (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Florian Zeller (The Father)
Possibilities
Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Paul Greengrass (News of the World) — podcast
Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
Long Shots
George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
Kelly Reichardt (First Cow)
*BEST ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) — podcast
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) — podcast
Gary Oldman (Mank) — podcast
Ben Affleck (The Way Back) — podcast
Major Threats
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Steven Yeun (Minari) — podcast
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) — podcast
Tom Hanks (News of the World) — podcast [one and two]
Possibilities
Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Long Shots
John David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)
Adarsh Gourav (The White Tiger)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) — podcast
Major Threats
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) — podcast
Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie) — podcast
Yeri Han (Minari)
Radha Blank (The 40-Year-Old Version)
Possibilities
Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Kate Winslet (Ammonite) — podcast [one and two]
Long Shots
Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast
Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) — podcast
Meryl Streep (Let Them All Talk) — podcast
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Major Threats
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Jared Leto (The Little Things)
Alan Kim (Minari)
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Possibilities
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Long Shots
Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Will Patton (Minari)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) — podcast
Major Threats
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) — podcast
Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)
Possibilities
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)
Long Shots
Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) — podcast
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass) — podcast [Greengrass]
Major Threats
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) — podcast [Cohen]
The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)
First Cow (Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)
The Mauritanian (Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani & M.B. Traven)
Possibilities
The Life Ahead (Ugo Chiti & Edoardo Ponti) — podcast [Ponti]
The Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Armando Iannucci)
Emma (Eleanor Catton)
Long Shots
Let Him Go (Thomas Bezucha)
I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman) — podcast
Shirley (Sarah Gibbons)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
Mank (Jack Fincher)
Major Threats
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)
Da 5 Bloods (Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) — podcast [Lee]
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)
Possibilities
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)
Another Round (Tobias Lindholm & Thomas Vinterberg)
Palm Springs (Andy Siara)
Long Shots
On the Rocks (Sofia Coppola)
Malcolm & Marie (Sam Levinson)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Time (Amazon)
Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)
Rest of Shortlist
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon)
76 Days (MTV)
Boys State (Apple)
The Mole Agent (Gravitas)
MLK/FBI (IFC)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
Gunda (Neon)
Notturno (Super LTD)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Another Round (Denmark)
Collective (Romania)
Two of Us (France)
A Sun (Taiwan)
I’m No Longer Here (Mexico)
Rest of Shortlist
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Hope (Norway)
Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
La Llorona (Guatemala)
The Mole Agent (Chile)
Charlatan (Czech Republic)
Sun Children (Iran)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Soul (Pixar)
Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/GKIDS)
Over the Moon (Netflix)
Onward (Pixar)
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)
Major Threats
The Croods: A New Age (DreamWorks)
Earwig and the Witch (GKIDS)
The Willoughbys (Netflix)
Trolls: World Tour (Universal)
Possibilities
Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Mugen Train (Funimation)
On-Gaku: Our Sound (GKIDS)
Lupin III: The First (GKIDS)
*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*
Frontrunners
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
Tenet
Judas and the Black Messiah
Major Threats
Minari
The Trial of the Chicago 7
One Night in Miami
First Cow
The Truffle Hunters
Possibilities
The Mauritanian
Mulan
Da 5 Bloods
Promising Young Woman
Long Shots
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
The Midnight Sky
*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*
Frontrunners
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Emma
News of the World
Ammonite
Major Threats
Promising Young Woman
The Glorias
Mulan
Possibilities
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The Personal History of David Copperfield
One Night in Miami
Long Shots
Birds of Prey
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Trial of the Chicago 7
*BEST FILM EDITING*
Frontrunners
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Mank
The Father
Major Threats
News of the World
Promising Young Woman
Tenet
Possibilities
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
Long Shots
Minari
Da 5 Bloods
The Midnight Sky
*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*
Frontrunners
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
Hillbilly Elegy
Emma
Rest of Shortlist
One Night in Miami
Birds of Prey
The Little Things
The Glorias
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*
Frontrunners
Soul
Mank
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Minari
Rest of Shortlist
Tenet
Da 5 Bloods
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ammonite
The Invisible Man
Mulan
The Life Ahead
The Little Things
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Blizzard of Souls
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Frontrunners
“Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
“Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
“Io Si (Seen)” (The Life Ahead)
“Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
“Never Break” (Giving Voice)
Rest of Shortlist
“Turntables” (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
“Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah)
“Wuhan Flu” (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
“Show Me Your Soul” (Mr. Soul!)
“See What You’ve Done” (Belly of the Beast)
“Loyal Brave True” (Mulan)
“Rain Song” (Minari)
“Green” (Sound of Metal)
“Free” (The One and Only Ivan)
“Make It Work” (Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey)
*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*
Frontrunners
Mank
Tenet
News of the World
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Major Threats
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Midnight Sky
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Possibilities
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Mulan
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Emma
Long Shots
The Prom
Ammonite
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
*BEST SOUND*
Frontrunners
Sound of Metal
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Soul
Major Threats
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Midnight Sky
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The Prom
Possibilities
One Night in Miami
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Outpost
The Invisible Man
Greyhound
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*
Frontrunners
Tenet
Mank
The Midnight Sky
The One and Only Ivan
Mulan
Rest of Shortlist
Soul
Welcome to Chechnya
Birds of Prey
Bloodshot
Love and Monsters
*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*
Frontrunners
If Anything Happens I Love You
To Gerard
Yes-People
The Snail and the Whale
Out
Rest of Shortlist
Kapaemahu
Opera
Burrow
Genius Loci
Traces
*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*
Frontrunners
A Concerto Is a Conversation
A Love Song for Latasha
Colette
Hysterical Girl
What Would Sophia Loren Do?
Rest of Shortlist
Do Not Split
Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa
Call Center Blues
Hunger Ward
The Speed Cubers
*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*
Frontrunners
Two Distant Strangers
The Human Voice
Feeling Through
The Van
The Present
Rest of Shortlist
The Letter Room
White Eye
Da Yie
Bittu
The Kicksled Choir
